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ANALYSIS: Manifestations of a desperate Iranian regime

A member of KDPI sprays red paint at holes in a wall made by shrapnel from a rocket attack in Arbil on September 12, 2018. (AFP)

The Iranian regime hanged three Kurdish activists when it rained missiles in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Ramin Hossein Panahi and cousins Zaniar Moradi and Loghman Moradi were executed in cold bold on September 8. The missile attack deep inside Iraq’s Kurdistan region killed at least 11 and wounded 50 others was widely condemned as expected.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) proudly claimed the responsibility for the deadly attack. IRGC has not been known for jumping in and taking credit for terrorist attacks on its opposition groups based in Iraq in the past.

So what was different this time around? Is the regime desperate? Does it need show of force outside the country to compensate for its internal failures? Times have changed but the Iranian regime has not. Ali Khamenei and IRGC top brass are yet to learn that the golden days of terrorist attacks on its opposition groups in Iraq and escaping the consequences are long gone.

In the late 80s, 90s and 2000, the IRGC lunched hundreds of terrorist attacks with impunity on its main opposition’s bases the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) in Iraq. Terrorism is Iranian regime’s second nature. One needs not to look far to see it has franchise its terrorist operation deep in Europe and as far as the US mainland.

Keep in mind that the Iranian regime is already stifled with economic failures at home. It is desperately looking for a diversion both for its demoralized forces such as paramilitary Basij at home and its proxy forces in other countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. It needs to boost their already low morale.

An enemy within

Since the start of protests in January, the Iranian regime’s leadership has put the blame on outside meddling and the MEK activities in Iran. Despite IRGC’s usual threats for boosting its foot soldiers’ moral at home, time has proven that they are no match for the recent turn of events. Soon, what began as protests over bread, mushroomed to 143 cities across the country.

The problem has since snowballed to a major and life threatening issue for the theocratic regime in Tehran. Outside pressure unlike the past 40 years is mounting and for the spoiled regime showered with gifts and incentive packages from the West has come as a shock. An Iranian regime’s official recently described the government as a patient on life-support.

Many analysts believe that the Iranian regime will not weather its current predicament. Economic failures as the bedrock fueled with four decades of absolute suppression are recipes for disaster. It is certainly true but it is missing a major component, which should be taken into the consideration and that is the role of an organized resistance.

Khamenei and IRGC officials have said all along that MEK’s Resistance Units are playing a leading role in turning simple protests into major security threats for the regime. Read more

Source: Al-Arabiya English


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